The BTC price remains well below its late-2025 peak, however, technical indicators continue to show resistance overhead.
Glassnode’s Seller Exhaustion Constant has declined sharply during 2026. The metric is designed to identify potential low-risk market bottoms by combining the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit with 30-day price volatility. Its latest reading is around 0.0164, above the very low levels historically associated with major BTC cycle bottoms.
That distinction is important for the current Bitcoin price prediction. Reduced seller exhaustion can indicate that forced selling is losing momentum, but it does not independently confirm that a durable market bottom has formed.
BTC Price Prediction as Seller Pressure Eases
The latest on-chain picture suggests that BTC sellers are becoming less aggressive. Glassnode previously described the market as moving from aggressive distribution toward a more balanced state, with selling pressure easing and price entering a consolidation phase.
Bitcoin’s 30-day Seller Exhaustion Constant has fallen sharply in 2026 but remains above the sub-0.01 levels seen at previous major bear-market bottoms. Source: Glassnode via X
In a later July report, Glassnode said Bitcoin had moved into a range-bound phase after recovering from below $58,000 toward $65,000. The firm noted that aggressive selling had eased moderately, although derivatives positioning and subdued spot activity continued to point to a cautious market.
This backdrop differs from a classic capitulation event. The Seller Exhaustion Constant has not reached the deeply depressed readings seen around previous major bear-market bottoms. As a result, the current data points more toward declining sell-side pressure than a confirmed cycle low.
The distinction matters because BTC can spend extended periods consolidating while sellers gradually lose conviction without immediately transitioning into a new bull market.
Bitcoin Price Today and Market Structure
Bitcoin has recently traded predominantly within the $63,000-$65,000 range. The cited TradingView snapshot places BTC/USD near $63,587, with the broader technical gauge classified as neutral despite a strong concentration of sell signals among individual moving averages.
Bitcoin (BTC) price chart. Source: Brave New Coin
The RSI stood near 47, keeping momentum close to the midpoint and away from both overbought and oversold conditions. The Stochastic %K was around 46, while the Commodity Channel Index was approximately -57.
The ADX reading near 11 also indicated weak trend strength. Together, these indicators describe a market that is consolidating rather than following a strong directional trend.
Glassnode’s late-July market report reached a similar conclusion, noting that Bitcoin had rebounded from around $64,000 to $65,100 but remained range-bound.
BTC Price Faces Resistance Above $64K
While Bitcoin has held its current range, the moving-average structure remains a hurdle for bulls.
The cited technical data shows BTC below the 10-, 20-, 30- and 50-day exponential moving averages. The 50-day EMA was around $64,518, while the 100-day EMA stood near $66,672.
Bitcoin has consolidated for roughly 30 days around the 1D 50-day moving average, while the 100-day and 200-day moving averages are converging overhead as a key resistance zone. Source: TradingShot on TradingView
Longer-term averages were even higher. The 100-day SMA was approximately $67,402, while the 200-day EMA and SMA were near $72,012 and $69,747, respectively.
This creates a broad resistance band above the current BTC price. A sustained move through the mid-$60,000s would therefore be required to improve the short- and medium-term technical structure.
The 50-day SMA, around $63,336, was the notable exception among the major averages in the cited data, generating a buy signal and providing nearby technical support.
Bitcoin Wallets Show Larger Holders Gaining Ground
On-chain ownership data provides another perspective on the current Bitcoin price outlook.
According to the cited Santiment data, the number of wallets holding at least 10,000 BTC reached a six-month high of 90, representing a net increase of six wallets, or 7.1%, over eight weeks.
Bitcoin wallets holding 10,000+ BTC reached a six-month high of 90, adding six wallets (+7.1%) over eight weeks as large-holder accumulation increased in late July and early August 2026. Source: @SantimentData via X
The rise suggests that Bitcoin supply has become more concentrated among very large holders during the recent period of price weakness. Smaller-wallet holdings have reportedly declined, creating a different distribution pattern from the one seen during periods of stronger retail participation.
Glassnode has also documented accumulation by longer-term holders during the 2026 downturn. In July, the firm said long-term holders had returned to accumulation and that patient buyers were beginning to absorb supply.
However, this should not automatically be interpreted as proof of an imminent Bitcoin rally. Large-wallet growth can reflect several factors, including transfers between addresses, custody arrangements and changes in ownership structure.
Bitcoin Prediction 2026: Is the Market Near a Bottom?
Some analysts see the current structure as consistent with a late-stage bear-market environment.
Analyst Ali Martinez has presented a cycle chart that places Bitcoin’s 2025 peak near $125,000 and the subsequent 2026 decline within the latter stages of the cycle. His interpretation points toward a potential recovery and new highs by 2027.
A cycle chart shows Bitcoin peaking near $125K in 2025, declining through 2026, and potentially entering the final bear-market phase before a recovery to new highs by 2027. Source: Ali Martinez via X
Historical cycle comparisons, however, remain difficult to apply mechanically. Bitcoin’s market structure has changed as institutional participation, spot ETFs, derivatives, and corporate treasury strategies have become more prominent.
Glassnode’s own research has similarly urged caution. In July, the firm described Bitcoin as being in a “bottom building” phase but said the process was not yet complete. It noted that long-term holder loss realization had accelerated while ETF flows remained negative.
That evidence supports a more measured interpretation of the current Bitcoin prediction: the market may be progressing through a bottoming process, but the available indicators do not establish that the cycle low is already confirmed.
Key Support Levels to Watch
Pivot calculations provide several reference points for the Bitcoin price forecast.
The classic central pivot is around $62,491. First resistance is near $67,248, followed by $71,677 and $80,863. On the downside, the first support sits near $58,061, followed by $53,305 and $44,119.
These levels place BTC in an important middle ground. The price is above the central pivot but remains below the first major resistance.
A sustained break above $67,000 would therefore improve the technical picture and bring the $71,000-$72,000 region into focus. Conversely, a move below $62,500 would weaken the current consolidation structure and expose the high-$50,000s.
The levels are technical reference points rather than fixed Bitcoin price targets.
Bitcoin Price Outlook
The Bitcoin price outlook remains mixed as BTC holds near $64,000.
On the positive side, seller exhaustion has increased, large-holder activity has strengthened, and recent Glassnode data shows a reduction in aggressive selling. Bitcoin has also maintained the $63,000-$65,000 region despite remaining significantly below its previous all-time high.
The technical picture is less decisive. Momentum indicators are largely neutral, while most moving averages remain above the current BTC price. The $66,000-$67,000 region therefore represents an important test for any sustained recovery.
On the downside, the $62,500 pivot is the first level to monitor, followed by support near $58,000. A deeper breakdown could expose the $53,000 area identified by the pivot structure.
For now, the data points to stabilization rather than a confirmed trend reversal. Further reductions in selling pressure, stronger spot demand, and a sustained reclaim of overhead moving averages would provide more convincing evidence that Bitcoin is transitioning from consolidation into a broader recovery.
The technical and on-chain indicators discussed above are time-sensitive and should not be treated as guarantees of future Bitcoin prices. Market conditions can change rapidly, particularly during periods of low volatility and reduced liquidity.
